the big question: WHEN does the music stop? X-D does it stop slowly or does it come to a sudden halt?
… because debt worldwide (from companies, private and banks) in the last 10 years +50% to 182 billion USD…. if these loans cannot be payed back (because of FED/ECB liquidity comes into a halt) (src: German Tagesschau) -> Credit Crunch (“a sudden reduction in the general availability of loans (or credit) or a sudden tightening of the conditions required to obtain a loan from banks.”) the British call this phenomenon “cedit crunch” – exactly what the world has seen in 2008.
those system relevant banks would AGAIN be rescued by the state and hopefully then nationalized – key managers punished, jailed and banks closed down – FOR GOOD/FOREVER! (src)
compared to failure of major bank – power-grid failure over several days is “kindergarden” (Banker Voss)
worst-worst case scenario: Prof Dr. Kreiß from Aalen Germany says there are civilized and uncivilized ways to reduce overproduction – civilized: recession uncivilized: war. (src) “you have build too many houses during the boom? now invest in war and profit again by destroying those houses” (if you are ruthless enough and want to profit while others suffer = satanic!) 🙈 (this is financial crime!)
Balance of risk in the economy has shifted to the downside
emerging markets have experiences capital outflows
policy uncertainty has increased
could undermine investor confidence
some investors have grown overconfident and even complacent
financial stability risks could rise in the near term
several potential development could trigger sharp tightening in financial conditions
normalization of monetary policy (end of quantitative easing) could lead to re-pricing in asset (real estate) markets
any of those concerns could become trigger events that could expose vulnerabilities (of the highly interconnected financial (banking!) system) that have been building during years of accommodative policies
debt has grown to 250% of combined GDP (182 Billion USD)
housing markets especially in global cities (NY, London, Frankfurt) are richly valued
banks are stronger but still face challenges
many banks remain vulnerable
due to lending to highly in debt borrowers
holdings of illiquid and opaque assets
reliance on foreign fragile currency funding
Chapter 2: financial regulatory agenda 10 years after 2008 subprime crisis
cause for optimism
supervisor stress testing have been broadly adopted
He received his Abitur in Literature and Mathematics from Humboldtschule Bad Homburg (src)
German: Jetzt Segel raffen und auf Sturm vorbereiten!
Warum ist der IWF in Panik?
… weil Schulden Weltweit (von Unternehmen, Privat und Banken) in den letzten 10 Jahren +50% auf 182 Billionen USD…. wenn diese Kredite nicht bedient werden können (weil Liquidität in’s Stocken kommt, Kunden Job verlieren nicht zahlen können) (src: Tagesschau)
“Credit Crunch” (“a sudden reduction in the general availability of loans (or credit) or a sudden tightening of the conditions required to obtain a loan from banks.“) nennen die Briten dieses seit 2008 bekannte Phänomen.
…werden Banken immer aggressiver Versuchen die ausstehenden Kredite einzutreiben um nicht selbst Pleite anmelden zu müssen.