GeoEconomics

the Chinese year of “the tiger” what might it mean?

it could mean, that China, thinks, because 2022 is the (Chinese zodiac) “year of the tiger” it’s time to succeed the US-Empire in global domination has come.

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/18/russian-oil-sale-to-india-complicates-bidens-efforts “An Indian government official said on Friday that the country will increase its imports of Russian oil, allowing it to boost energy supplies at a discount”

big brother (Russia) agains small brother (Ukraine)

What is Biden’s strategy?

Biden’s strategy is to get re-elected.

We just hope and pray he will not go full Bush-Walker-style and kill 3000 of his own people in an pearl-harbor artificially for him created “incident”, to get re-elected.

Also US (of course) wants to stay the supreme global petro-Dollar-power, and does not like rivals (China) and even disliked nuclear power (in the beginning) because it could weaken the petro-Dollar.

So it is likely that with an invasion of Ukraine a full-scale (very expensive for both sides) trade war between West (US-EU) and East (Russia-China) might emerge – hurting EVERYONE, “great” isn’t it?

What is Putin’s strategy?

Putin of course wants NATO to stay away from his border and thus wants a clear NO to eastward expansion of NATO (as promised MANY TIMES but never put on paper and signed by US-NATO, first in 1990).

Another theory: Putin COULD feel threatened by an Ukraine economy that “does well” on Western subventions (basically the money of all the other countries of the EU-NATO is used to build up the economy of Ukraine, so it looks good and Russians want the same = revolt in Russia)

So what is next to expect?

Military expert, director of the World Arms Trade Analysis Center Igor Korotchenko: “Russia should place its military contingent on the territory of the DPR and LPR.”

“He described what events would follow the recognition of the independence of the Donbass republics.”

“The expert is convinced that the military contingent of the Russian Federation is able to protect people from attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

“Now the common security space of Russia – the DPR – LPR will appear. In case of continued aggression by the Armed Forces – the force neutralization of the Ukrainian invasion group, ”Korotchenko explained.

auto translated from source: https://sm.news/voennyj-ekspert-korotchenko-raspisal-dalnejshie-dejstviya-rossii-v-donbasse-68511/

the picture of this article suggests (soldier holding hand in front of his eyes)

a lot of Russians (except for the hardcore “patriots” “right-wing” “nationalists” as Korotchenko) seem to dislike more Russian military adventures with unlikely outcomes.

Another critical tweet auto translated:

Putin rises the stakes in this US-NATO vs Russia-China proxy poker game.

Will the Ukrainians – now that the Russian army is OFFICIALLY in DPR and LPR regions – really stop firing shells?

I hope so, but this is absolutely uncertain.

Will Russia REALLY start the invasion, as soon as the first Russian solider was OFFICIALLY killed by Ukrainian soldiers?

Putin is right: OF COURSE US-NATO wanted to build Ukraine up as a proxy-stronghold against Russia as they did with all other countries with subsidies (Germany (Marshall Plan), Poland, many East European countries).

Also – of course – US and Russia do not want to get into conflict DIRECTLY, because Russian bombs falling on US soil would something completely unwanted by the US.

Russian bombs on Europe’s soil is okay for the US. (would of course prefer as expensive as possible US bombs).

The sad story about NATO: not very democratic

NATO IS DEFACTO UNDER US CONTROL and they will NEVER give that up, NATO members would have to say “will quit”.

IMHO that COULD MEAN NOBODY (?) (ESPECIALLY NOT THE US COMMANDERS IN CHIEF) have learned the history lesson of WORLD WAR 1.

It is VERY VERY DANGEROUS to constantly enlarge alliances + piling up on weapons (with the argument the other side does it too).

1913 US President: Woodrow Wilson knew: more weapons do not make the world a safer place

Woodrow Wilson was elected USA president – because he promised his people to keep them out of the war – 5 months later the USA joined the war against the central powers – German Empire, Austria-Hungary, Ottoman Empire, Bulgaria.”

He said German philosophy was essentially selfish and lacking in spirituality. (Trump’s “America First” means: egoism/selfishness)

When I spoke of the Kaiser building up the German machine as a means of maintaining peace, he said,

“What a foolish thing it was to create a powder magazine and risk someone’s dropping a spark into it!”

https://military.wikia.org/wiki/Diplomatic_history_of_World_War_I

that constantly increases the risk of WORLD WAR! (either US is stupid or deliberate)

Even worse: Shit is getting worse in Bosnia-Herzegovina AGAIN, with Serbian (Russian allies) elections coming up End of 2022 and nationalists wanting to break away from the construct (let em have their freedom X-D)

More or less “fun” fact:

The “minor” incident that triggered world war 1 was:  Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and his wife got shot by an Bosnian Serb student (rebels against the Austrian empire) in Sarajevo (capital of Bosnia-Herzegovina).

to sum it up: why could World War 1 happen?

“to increase security”: the “requirements” (and thus real reasons that made world war 1 possible) was the MASSIVE (for no reason) military stockpiling of weapons and the buildup of big alliance (today US-NATO), that when one nation get’s “attacked”, the other nation would have to help.

As Mr Woodrow Wilson righteously pointed out, this does not increase security, quiet the opposite: who would build up a lot of powder kegs and then risk someone dropping a matchstick.

As Russia righteously points out: You can not increase the security of one nation, by increasing the cost (the risk) for another nation.

Who to trust?

“The first casualty of War is Truth” (unkown source)

A great as independent as possible news outlet covering the story from the outside is: https://www.aljazeera.com/

(run a video search https://ytpak.net/search?q=aljazeera+ukraine)

https://twitter.com/hashtag/ukraine?f=live

#Ukraina: https://twitter.com/hashtag/Украина?f=live

“The first casualty of War is Truth” (unkown source)

PLEASE US & UK DROP ALL CHARGES AGAINST ASSANGE! HE COULD NOW IN TIMES OF RUSSIA’S WAR ON UKRAINE BE A GREAT ASSET!

remember this cowboy president? (by the way a secretive society “skull and bones” member)

“thanks for risking your lifes, killing innocent people for better access for my big oil buddies to iraq’s resources”

remember this foto?

it is Powell presentingintelligence” “proof” to the UN security council in the form of anthrax, that Saddam was a threat that needs to be dealt with immediately.

Powell in 2015: “I regret it. I will always regret it. It was a terrible mistake on all our parts and on the intelligence community … I wish it had been different, I wish I had more time.”

“Maybe if I had another week or two my instincts would have seen through this or been able to do double-checking, but I didn’t have more time.”

“But I’m not looking for an excuse. I gave that presentation. I gave it believing that everything I had said had been double-sourced, triple-sourced, and was accurate, but it was not.”

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2015/11/an-inside-view-from-powell-complete-with-regrets/

“For months, many hardliners in the Bush administration have expressed fear that the inspectors might never find any prohibited weapons.”

https://edition.cnn.com/2003/US/01/10/wbr.smoking.gun/

the “smoking gun” was never found… because it was not there…

Yes, Bush was fighting for “freedom”, the “freedom” of big oil to DIRECTLY access Iraq’s oil… with little care about his own people, the people of iraq and democracy.

the result: “Yes, the Iraq War was a war for oil, and it was a war with winners: Big Oil.

https://edition.cnn.com/2013/03/19/opinion/iraq-war-oil-juhasz/index.html

“Classified US military documents released by WikiLeaks in October 2010, record Iraqi and Coalition military deaths between January 2004 and December 2009.[9][10][11][12][16][17]”

“The documents record 109,032 deaths broken down into “Civilian” (66,081 deaths), “Host Nation” (15,196 deaths),”Enemy” (23,984 deaths), and “Friendly” (3,771 deaths).[14][18]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War

So Mr Bush went to war with phony fabricated proof, killed 109,032 people and is still walking freely.

No serial killer will ever achieve that “result”.

(because both sides are firing all propaganda cannons available completely confusing the public of all nations)

 

… unfortunately – he – Putin – really did… nobody, especially not his “Western” “friends” or (almost) allies or at least Putin-understanders expected such a CATASTROPHIC move that will leave many many 10.000 women and children DEAD.

Already the death toll of Russian soldiers is above 1000.

How many lifes will he sacrifice for this invasion?

unfortunately: the US has a history of lies that start wars

so it is understandable that the US has worked over 30 years to create distrust all around the globe.

Biden now has to do the impossible, it is a challenge, but it is also a opportunity: restore faith, that the US is a nation still dedicated to it’s democratic values & truth (and not $dollars$ only).

That the US is willing to intervene in Europe to not allow Russia + China the “playing” field.

Because without the US NATO is f***ed.

(Germany is ramping up it’s investments and military spending beyond the 2% but at the time of writing this, the German army is in pretty bad shape, having suffered decades of under funding (also corrupt arms dealers “whatever sells” that just want to sell and do not care about the quality of their products has added to the problem))

Yes the G36 shoots NATO ammunition pretty precise, but it is not as reliable as it should be “don’t drop it”, or the 90% plastic rifle’s crosshair might not be aligned correctly anymore

#wtf Heckler & Koch?

Also: nothing is more deadly (for the soldier shooting the weapon) than a weapon – that does not shoot – when needed.

The soldier that can not return rapid fire in any situation – is a dead soldier – as at least ONE sunken German submarine of the second world war proofs. (airplane attacked the submarine, the machine gun was jammed, the submarine was sunk (was not able to return the fire, was not able to dive fast enough))

the lie that started Vietnam: a NSA invented attack, that never happened

On August 2, 1964, the destroyer USS Maddox, while performing a signals intelligence patrol as part of DESOTO operations, was claimed to have been approached by three North Vietnamese Navy torpedo boats of the 135th Torpedo Squadron.[1][5] The North Vietnamese boats attacked with torpedoes and machine gun fire.[5] One U.S. aircraft was damaged, three North Vietnamese torpedo boats were damaged, and four North Vietnamese sailors were killed, with six more wounded. There were no U.S. casualties.[8] Maddox was “unscathed except for a single bullet hole from a Vietnamese machine gun round”.[5]

The National Security Agency originally claimed that another sea battle, the Second Gulf of Tonkin incident, occurred on August 4, 1964, but instead evidence was found of “Tonkin ghosts”[9] (false radar images) and not actual North Vietnamese torpedo boats.

In the 2003 documentary The Fog of War, the former United States Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara admitted that an attack on the USS Maddox happened on August 2, but the August 4 Gulf of Tonkin attack, for which Washington authorized retaliation, never happened.[10]

In 1995, McNamara met with former Vietnam People’s Army General Võ Nguyên Giáp to ask what happened on August 4, 1964, in the second Gulf of Tonkin Incident. “Absolutely nothing”, Giáp replied.[11] Giáp claimed that the attack had been imaginary.[12]

The outcome of these two incidents was the passage by U.S. Congress of the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which granted U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson the authority to assist any Southeast Asian country whose government was considered to be jeopardized by “communist aggression”.

The resolution served as Johnson’s legal justification for deploying U.S. conventional forces and the commencement of open warfare against North Vietnam.

In 2005, an internal National Security Agency historical study was declassified; it concluded that Maddox had engaged the North Vietnamese Navy on August 2, but that there were no North Vietnamese naval vessels present during the reported incident of August 4.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_incident

U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson was vice president until JFK got shot.

Then he was president.

Does that sound like a motive? you tell me.

No doubt LBJ & friends were corrupt to the bone.

so how much can those “evidence” by “intelligence” be trusted?

NOT AT ALL!

let’s LEARN from Powell’s mistake: and NOT jump or rush to conclusions and NOT believe “intelligence” “evidence

lies won’t work anymore!

NSA, CIA, MI6 & BND you got to regain that trust.

2014: “That’s why, say some analysts, rather than spend billions of dollars developing domestic infrastructure, the US gas industry is urging the authorities to build terminals to export shale gas in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe and Asia, where it will fetch prices up to five times higher. Already two bills have been introduced into Congress aimed at fast-tracking LNG exports.”

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/04/25/how-long-can-the-fracking-revolution-last/

“Most of the projects in Eastern Siberia and the shelf become profitable when oil prices are between 60 and 80 dollars per barrel, but to develop the Arctic shelf it’s also necessary to attract modern technology from Western countries,” said Tkachuk. “That’s why the future of oil development may also depend on the issue of lifting sanctions.”

https://web.archive.org/web/20210225072541/https://ecologyrussia.com/are-russia-s-oil-wells-truly-in-danger-of-drying-up/

Rockefellers: “Standard Oil—a legacy that includes the modern energy behemoths Chevron, Marathon Petroleum, ExxonMobil, and others”

“no serious investment portfolio will be able to avoid profiting from the consumption of those resources.”

https://capitalresearch.org/article/the-private-investments-of-private-foundations-part-2/

checkout the current oil price

a 2022 article about Devon a shale gas producer (the biggest top 5 shale producers)

Oil – the “Gini” is out of the (oil)bottle – it will be very hard (renewables) to put it back in, but to put it back in, we must.

“The U.S. is THE world’s largest oil consumer, it consumes about

19,687,287 or 19.69 million barrels of crude oil per day”

if the math checks out and oil would be cheap like $60 then Americans spend AT LEAST $431.15 Billion on oil (not counting coal, not counting gas) per year.

“U.S. Thirst for Russian Oil Hits Record High Despite Tough Talk”

“Even as Washington champions energy independence and warns European allies against becoming too dependent on Moscow, American refineries are buying more of the country’s oil than ever before.”

“The sprawling complex, which belongs to Exxon Mobil Corp., isn’t the only U.S. refinery that’s been receiving shipments of Russian oil. Chevron Corp.’s plant in Mobile, Ala., and Valero Energy Corp.’s facility in St. Charles, La., are also customers.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oil-demand-hits-record-high-in-u-s-amid-rising-tensions

July 2020 to July 2021 total oil US imports from Russia 228.825.000 barrels

if the math is right according to https://www.statista.com/statistics/1094286/us-imports-of-russian-oil-and-petroleum-products/

assume an average $60 per barrel that would amount to $13.73 BILLION per year from Russia alone.

“Deprived of access to Venezuelan crude by U.S. sanctions on the regime of Nicolás Maduro, and facing reduced shipments from OPEC nations since the cartel cut output, U.S. refiners turned to Russian oil in 2020 to fill the gap. The buying spree, combined with sharply lower Saudi shipments, catapulted Russia into the position of third-largest oil supplier to the U.S. last year.”

“America’s increasing reliance on Russian oil is at odds with U.S. energy diplomacy. For the last two years, lawmakers in Washington have been lobbying European countries to abandon Nord Stream 2, a multibillion-dollar pipeline to transport Siberian gas to Germany, fearing it will give the Kremlin further leverage over U.S. allies. (Russian gas accounted for about 45% of Europe’s natural gas imports in 2019.) Congress went as far last year as to authorize the use of sanctions against companies involved in the project.”

“the mantra of energy independence championed by former U.S. President Trump is hollow”

US imports Oil from Russia as much as from Saudi Arabia but Canada still #1

“U.S. imports from Russia averaged 538,000 barrels a day in 2020—more than the 522,000-barrel-a-day average from Saudi Arabia.

The country’s gains came in large part at the expense of Venezuela.”

“The top U.S. importer of Russian petroleum last year was Valero, with almost 55 million barrels, followed by Exxon, with almost 50 million barrels. The companies together accounted for almost 50% of total U.S. imports of Russian oil, according to customs data.”

“If Saudi Arabia increases its production in the next few months, as many expect, its barrels could potentially displace the Russian ones. So could oil from Kuwait and Iraq. Otherwise, American refiners would still need to find some dense crude to feed their cokers. Crude from Canada’s oil sands is an option; but U.S. refiners are probably already buying as much as is available.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oil-demand-hits-record-high-in-u-s-amid-rising-tensions

also 16% of the uranium imports of the US come from Russia

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/where-our-uranium-comes-from.php

Frack Off! “a shale well has a very limited lifespan”

Putin does not have to worry. the US shale bonanza is short lived.

“Its output plummets drastically after the first three years and then deteriorates steadily thereafter”

https://www.newsweek.com/2014/07/18/how-long-will-americas-shale-gas-boom-last-260823.html

“The US shale revolution has surrendered to reality”

“In July 2020, accounting firm DeLoitte released a report stating that, “The U.S. shale industry registered net negative free cash flows of $300 billion, impaired more than $450 billion of invested capital, and saw more than 190 bankruptcies since 2010″ — supporting the claim that the industry has peaked without ever making money.”

https://web.archive.org/web/20210726181556/https://www.nationofchange.org/2021/07/19/the-us-shale-revolution-has-surrendered-to-reality/

“Fracking, says the oil and gas industry, will bring an end to the country’s dependence on fuel imports: self-sufficiency is the stated goal.”

“the idea is that these fuels – particularly supposedly cleaner fracked gas – will act as transition energies till renewables like solar and wind power are properly developed.

When that happens, the theory goes, we can all embrace a fossil fuel-free future.”

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/04/25/how-long-can-the-fracking-revolution-last/

this is the same “it will be transitory” LIE that has brought you the Dollar and Euro “inflation” by massive money printing FED and ECB central banks: Whoever believes such big oil lobby produced LIES and NONSENSE also believes the moon is made of cheese and soon we will all live on the moon and eat cheese only.

because: the oil & gas industry has VERY VERY LITTLE interest spending billions and billions on setting up solar panels and wind parks. (it is sad, but that’s how it is, they are ONLY INTERESTED IN THE AS FAST AS POSSIBLE AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE PROFIT, they are living the essence of RECKLESS SHORT TERM CAPITALISM)

unless forced by law Shell will NEVER be a company producing 100% renewable energy. NEVER.

“the shale revolution is that it makes this (saving energy & renewables) seem less of a priority” https://www.newsweek.com/2014/07/18/how-long-will-americas-shale-gas-boom-last-260823.html

“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that in 2020, U.S. dry shale gas production was about 26.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), and equal to about 79% of total U.S. dry natural gas production in 2020.”

https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=907&t=8

Vladimir Putin Opposes U.S. Fracking Because It Threatens Russia’s Oil & Gas Exports

NOT ONLY PUTIN IS AGAINST FRACKING!

A LOT OF PEOPLE IN EUROPE ARE AGAINST FRACKING (simply because it is probably THE dirtiest way to extract oil & gas from the ground, while polluting valuable groundwater resources, that will get scarcer by the day)

But: Putin’s war on Ukraine send the oil price to new above $100 highs and thus: he/Russia indirectly now supports the fracking effort of the industry, that is (probably now) fracking away at even higher speeds.

Bloomberg: “Fracking may be America’s most powerful weapon against Russian aggression.”

Europe is rushing to build LNG gas ship receiving terminals.

(there are already a few dozens for example in Spain, Turkey, France, Italy)

“There is mounting evidence that the current level of water use for oil and gas production simply cannot be sustained and that projected increases in use may lead to a crisis”, says the WORC. “Something has to give.”

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2014/04/25/how-long-can-the-fracking-revolution-last/

“While many former Soviet bloc countries in Eastern Europe have joined NATO and the European Union in an attempt to distance themselves from their Moscow, their overwhelming dependence on Russian energy imports has prevented them from achieving complete independence.

Gazprom supplies 30 percent of the European Union’s natural gas, and during a 2009 dispute with Ukraine showed the world that it can make Europe shiver if it turns the spigots off.”

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/us-oil-imports-by-country

while this all sounds like US fracking companies would have found the “holy grail” to energy independence, it is actually again hardcore reckless capitalism “selling the future for short term profits”

because you only frack once , then the groundwater will be polluted with metallic tasting chemicals for a long time.

In Rome the Romans became crazy, because their water pipes were made of lead, a now known neuro toxin (it poisons the brain), it seems a similar trend could happen in the US with fracking polluted drinking water?

Also fracking is rather expensive way to produce oil, it does not pay off at an oil price below $60.

“Even at the $100 figure some producers are reported to be struggling financially.”

Also: after a few years (less than 10) all of the US is “fracked” and if the US does not develop renewables at a very fast pace, it will plunge into a dire energy shortage or rely even heavier on imports.