(a survey among 9,000 German firms) and the statistics of incoming orders for the manufacturing sector at the beginning of September revealed a continuation of the economic downturn in Germany that cannot be ignored anymore.
The business climate dropped to 94.3 points – its lowest value since November 2012.
Incoming orders (see Figure 2 below) point to a severe weakness of investment.
These factors, amongst others, further strengthen the now widespread expectation that the Federal Statistics Office of Germany (Statistisches Bundesamt) will announce negative GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019.
Since this would mark the second consecutive quarterly contraction, it means that the German economy would be officially in a technical recession.
The recession in Germany comes at a time at which the only readily available instrument in the Monetary Union (EMU) to fight recessions, namely monetary policy, is not available anymore.
Moreover, German policymakers, the media, and professional economists have imprudently ignored the downturn, so that a discussion about appropriate countermeasures on the fiscal side remained silenced and valuable time was lost.
The repercussions for several fragile member states of the EMU, such as Italy and France, could turn out to be ominous.”
Mario Marcel: High-level policy panel discussion on central bank digital currencies
Remarks by Mr Mario Marcel, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the “High-level Policy Panel Discussion on Central Bank Digital Currencies”, OECD Global Blockchain Policy Forum, Paris, 12 September 2019.
Disruptive technologies in Finance or “FinTech” are transforming the financial industry landscape, challenging traditional business models. These technologies have been able to address some gaps in the traditional financial industry that can be grouped into five categories: Access, Speed, Cost, Transparency, and Security.
Leveraging on open-source technologies and Smartphone penetration, FinTech has seen fast adoption, disrupting all areas of the financial services such as payments, investments, savings & lending, insurance and risk management.
One example of the innovation across different financial services is this research framework from the World Economic Forum. Fintech innovations are identified and grouped into clusters, which in turn are a result of innovation triggered by common themes that cut across financial services. These themes are enabled by different technologies.
Chile: Capital flows and the migration of risks – the recent Chilean experience
Remarks by Mr Mario Marcel, Governor of the Central Bank of Chile, at the Session 4 “Next vulnerabilities: capital flows and the migration of risks to new corners of the financial system” at the High-level policy seminar on “Integration or Framentation? International Capital Flows in the Post-Crisis World”, arranged by the OECD and the Ministry of Finance of Japan, as Governance of G20 in 2019, Paris, 11 September 2019.
a. Which new sources of vulnerabilities are building up a decade after the 2008 crisis?
– Risks associated with the growing importance of non-bank lenders. In some EMEs, this may result in credit lending going informal due to a relatively higher cost in credit provision due to regulation.
– Risks that can emerge from a less developed financial infrastructures outside the regulatory perimeter.
– Risks attributed to disruptive FinTech activities, such as the development of crypto-assets markets, as well as cybersecurity issues.
– Risks and challenges associated with the changing nature of banks’ business model. In particular, those coming from the internationalization of banks’ activities.
b. How to better consider a cost-benefit framework for financial regulation, such as currency-based measures (CBM)?
– While the banking regulation and supervision arising from the 80s-banking crisis was restrictive in several ways, it was supported by sound monetary and fiscal policies.
Current macroeconomic conditions and prospects in the monetary policy scenario
1. The last few months have brought mixed signals for the Chilean economy. On the one hand, 2016 ended in a low tone, with a slowdown in activity and inflation. A series of one-off events extended economic weakness into the first quarter of 2017, lowering forecasts for the year as a whole. On the other, the global outlook appears more favorable, both for the growth of trade partners and terms of trade. This suggests a gradual improvement of economic prospects for the Chilean economy which should be further supported by an expansionary monetary policy as long as inflation remains below target.
“The Reichstag building in Berlin is to be better protected according to federal plans. For this purpose, a two-and-a-half-Meter deep and ten-Meter wide trench is to be erected across the square of the Republic. In addition, a security fence is supposed to shield the site around the West Portal of the Bundestag building, reported the Berliner Zeitung.” (source)
Right now it is like this:
One has to know:
what now is Germany – was at in beginning many small countries with their own laws, governments, borders, money and so on – and still is – some laws are still decided (education) on the local government level.
Same for the EU – there might be decisions that make sense to be taken on the grander level – but this should be the exception – not the rule – because fascism simply means concentration of power and concentration of power should neither be Berlin nor Brussels about – if it is – it shall be abolished.
CDU/CSU (Merkel, Seehoofer and Co) = conservative center-right party has – with the inability to find a good response for the refugee crisis – once more shown – how incompetent the German government operates on behalf of it’s people – piling up problems, creating more and more new taxes, solving almost no problems.
former finanical minister long serving member of CDU/CSU parliament Scheuble says Germany has never been independent since 1949 – thus it is ridiculous to think of Germany as being independent and any “governance” is ridiculous
if we consider this a truth – who is controlling Germany?
is it the US-intelligence?
is it big companies with their thousands of lobbyists with a free pass to the government building?
who or what is it – that keeps the Berlin government from making good decisions? (constantly eroding the trust in the Berlin government)
CDU/CSU lost the majority of seats and had to form a coalition – the question was: with whom?
used to be the second largest party
would have had the option to do a coalition with Green (ecological party) and “Die Linke” (left party) (red-red-green)
but decided to join forces/do a “coalition of corruption” with the CDU/CSU
basically the message to the people was:
power is more important to us than our principles (giving in to lies and corruption, giving up on their own values, the will to fight for the “small people”, for example the coalition contract included a cut for educational spending, wtf seriously?)
this has led to a massive erosion inside the SPD and also the voting and member base has eroded massively
people got so frustrated with their current government’s inability to solve problems, they voted for whoever alternative is there.
unfortunately for all the elder people “Pirate Party” is not a sexy name – it sounds like a threat
the Pirate Party was to obsessed with “free WIFI” that people did not believe they could solve any other problem but “free WIFI” (they would have surely solved that problem in no time, but again, older people care about their pension funds, not “free WIFI”).
at the beginning the Pirate Party did not know if they wanted to absorb the right-wing frustration of people, they decided not to.
‘In an open letter to “the extreme right-wing members” of the AfD, he wrote: “The AfD had written once, ‘courage for truth’ on the flags. It has now become the silence of cowardice. You Break Your Silence! You break with right-wing extremists in the AfD! Exclude them and ask them to leave your party.”‘
Lucke created a new Party “ALPHA” but failed to secure any public support.
the AfD is – similar to Trump – “the return of the phenomenon demoagogery“
the AfD still has to proof – to have any solutions to the problems people have – we all hope – the solution are not similar to those solutions Hitler offered.
USA (ranks #19 in the world by spending % of GDP for education and more cuts to come:
Germany (ranks #35 in the world by spending % of GDP for education and CDU+SPD also plan to cut it even more… because it is easier to rule over idiots, than to actually solve problems)
everyone want to live in peace
everyone wants to stay healthy
everyone wants a affordable housing (a roof over their head)
everyone wants affordable clean water, affordable healthy food, affordable renewable energy and travels
everyone wants quality of life
everyone wants friends
everyone wants a family, children
nobody wants to stay stupid – be exploited – be cheated – be lied to – get cancer and so on
if a government (and this can scientifically be measured) fails to solve problems – it shall be abandoned.
destroying the status quo is the goal of left and right wing, but after the destruction – of course – they both want to be in power
the rich – always in fear of their companies, Porsche and real estate being confiscated by left-wing parties – probably will always give funding to whoever is against this – in 1933 this was Hitler, as Thyssen – a German steel magnat that fled to Argentina and wrote this book:
public radio reports – that because of the “friday for future demonstrations” the German Parliament decides to put tax on CO2 – thus raising the costs of gas (fuel, oil and coal?) by 3 Cents…
… well is this a clever response? NO! look at France! Macron wanted to do EXACTLY the same – what was the result? The streets of Paris were burning for weeks.
what would have been an intelligent response?
actually solve the problem – without raising taxes even further (SMUs pay 40% taxes on their income, employees (without children) also 40% … every Euro spend is double and triple taxed)
build infrastructure so people can actually use the bicycle (you might be laughing, but it is common problem, that people living on the country side can not go to the city by bike – because of bad roads – because nobody planted for them)
give people incentives to produce, store and consume (!) their own energy
electricity (solar + batteries)
heating (solar geothermic, geothermic or heat-pump)
NOT FUCKING RAISE TAXES ON FUEL THAT IS ALREADY TAXED 70%!
that is the: we want to escalate the situation in order to exploit it stupid response creating even more hatred.