English (scroll down for German):

Gather your sails NOW and prepare for a storm!
Why is the IMF in a panic?

“everyone dances until the (money) music stops” (Adrian Tobias)

the big question: WHEN does the music stop? X-D does it stop slowly or does it come to a sudden halt?

… because debt worldwide (from companies, private and banks) in the last 10 years +50% to 182 billion USD…. if these loans cannot be payed back (because of FED/ECB liquidity comes into a halt) (src: German Tagesschau) -> Credit Crunch (“a sudden reduction in the general availability of loans (or credit) or a sudden tightening of the conditions required to obtain a loan from banks.[1]”) the British call this phenomenon “cedit crunch” – exactly what the world has seen in 2008.

  1. Failure of system relevant bank such as Bank of America/Deutsche Bank will result in civil war like conditions (Banker Voss)
    • those system relevant banks would AGAIN be rescued by the state and hopefully then nationalized – key managers punished, jailed and banks closed down – FOR GOOD/FOREVER! (src)
    • compared to failure of major bank – power-grid failure over several days is “kindergarden” (Banker Voss)
  2. worst-worst case scenario: Prof Dr. Kreiß from Aalen Germany says there are civilized and uncivilized ways to reduce overproductioncivilized: recession uncivilized: war. (src) “you have build too many houses during the boom? now invest in war and profit again by destroying those houses” (if you are ruthless enough and want to profit while others suffer = satanic!) 🙈 (this is financial crime!)


  • Balance of risk in the economy has shifted to the downside
  • further safeguard financial stability
  • confidence must not become complacence
  • global growth has plateaued
  • trade tension have escalated
  • emerging markets have experiences capital outflows
  • policy uncertainty has increased
    • could undermine investor confidence
  • some investors have grown overconfident and even complacent
  • financial stability risks could rise in the near term
  • several potential development could trigger sharp tightening in financial conditions
  • normalization of monetary policy (end of quantitative easing) could lead to re-pricing in asset (real estate) markets
  • any of those concerns could become trigger events that could expose vulnerabilities (of the highly interconnected financial (banking!) system) that have been building during years of accommodative policies
  • debt has grown to 250% of combined GDP (182 Billion USD)
  • housing markets especially in global cities (NY, London, Frankfurt) are richly valued
  • banks are stronger but still face challenges
    • many banks remain vulnerable
      • due to lending to highly in debt borrowers
      • holdings of illiquid and opaque assets
      • reliance on foreign fragile currency funding
  • Chapter 2: financial regulatory agenda 10 years after 2008 subprime crisis
    • cause for optimism
    • supervisor stress testing have been broadly adopted
    • many jurisdictions now have a macro prudential framework
    • some shadow banking activities
  • it remains crucial to strengthen the resilience of the financial system by addressing financial vulnerabilities
    • policy makers should assure that the post-crisis regulatory reform agenda is completed and implemented
      • they should resist calls for rolling back reforms
  • central banks should continue to normalize monetary policy gradually and they should communicate their decisions cleraly
  • emerging markets should build buffers against external risks
  • address vulnerabilities outside the banking sector
    • cyberrisks

Download Report PDF:

Download backup mirror: GFSR IMF IWF Global-Financial-Stability-Report-October-2018 – full text.pdf.tar


  • capacity to provide credit to the economy
  • absence of sharp movements in financial conditions from large increases in the price of risk
  • interconnectedness of the financial system
  • create “equity cushion in the boom”
  • “everyone dances until the music stops”
  • “easy financial conditions are sowing the seeds of the crisis”

My comment and advice to all financial intellectuals out there:

Financial crisis become economic crisis which results in broad support of people for right-wing fascism and nationalism.

(left-wing profits too but more right-wing)

Do we really want this?

So i urge everyone to do what you can to try to prevent this storm from happening.

About Dodd-Frank:

Dodd-Frank aimed to protect consumers from predatory lenders and mitigate systemic risk, but banks of all sizes have argued its burdens were excessive and have lobbied to reform the law.” (src)

The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Pub.L. 111–203, H.R. 4173, commonly referred to as Dodd–Frank) was signed into United States federal law by US President Barack Obama on July 21, 2010.[1] Passed in response to the 2008 global financial crisis, the Act brought the most significant changes to financial regulation in the nation since the regulatory reform that came following the Great Recession.[2][3][4][5] (src: Wikipedia)

Details: About Tobias Adrian (IMF/IWF)

Mr. Adrian holds a Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), an MSc from the London School of Economics, a Diplom from Goethe University Frankfurt, and a Maîtrise from Dauphine University Paris.

He received his Abitur in Literature and Mathematics from Humboldtschule Bad Homburg (src)

German: Jetzt Segel raffen und auf Sturm vorbereiten!

Warum ist der IWF in Panik?

… weil Schulden Weltweit (von Unternehmen, Privat und Banken) in den letzten 10 Jahren +50% auf 182 Billionen USD…. wenn diese Kredite nicht bedient werden können (weil Liquidität in’s Stocken kommt, Kunden Job verlieren nicht zahlen können) (src: Tagesschau)

Credit Crunch” (“a sudden reduction in the general availability of loans (or credit) or a sudden tightening of the conditions required to obtain a loan from banks.[1]“) nennen die Briten dieses seit 2008 bekannte Phänomen.

…werden Banken immer aggressiver Versuchen die ausstehenden Kredite einzutreiben um nicht selbst Pleite anmelden zu müssen.

  1. Ausfall einer systemkritischen Bank wie Bank of America/Deutsche Bank würde angeblich (Zitat Banker Voss) Bürgerkriegs-ähnliche Zustände bedeuten bzw. Banken müssten wiedermal vom Steuerzahler gerettet werden 🙈
  2. Worst-worst-case: “war as means of reducing over-production” “build too much houses? let’s blow em up!” X-D

More Videos from IMF:



IMF Blog:

Great Depression ahead? Nouriel Roubini, Marc Faber,

“So, looking back, a new financial architecture has been put in place, a testament to the resolve of policymakers to work together internationally to avoid a repeat of the Great Depression.

But is the financial system safe enough? Looking ahead, clouds appear on the horizon.

The global economic recovery has been uneven and inequality has risen, fueling inward-looking policies and contributing to increased
policy uncertainty.

Trade tensions have emerged, and a further escalation may damage market sentiment and significantly harm global growth.

Support for multilateralism has been waning, a dangerous undercurrent that may undermine confidence in policymakers’ ability to respond to future crises.” (src:

La Garde (IMF) distance herself from  Trump –

IMF: Catastrophe in Venezuela – complete loss of buying power of people because of inflation –

IMF is back in Africa – social cuts like 30 years ago?

Another Billion $ loan of IMF (that can never be paid back 🙈 but leads to massive austerity and enslavement in Argentina) for Argentina –!5538880/

Comment and possible solution by conspiracy conspirators:

“Wohoo! Don’t kill yourself just yet!”

I think it’s just another man made artificial crisis – buy up the world – scam – as it has been in 1907 by JP Morgan and Rockefeller.

Just print YOUR own local money and build up local economies that are INDEPENDENT from private FED/ECB banksters:

… instead of relying on money that is not under your control of the people/democracies/governments.

“Hinter jedem System stehen Menschen.”

… und ALLE sind vom (privatisierten) Geldsystem abhängig.

“Behind every System are people.”

… and EVERYONE is dependant on the (largely privatized) monetary system.

scroll down to the orange text for an English translation. 🙂

Michael Krons im Gespräch mit Rainer Voss.

Da ich Software-Projekte entwickelt habe kann ich aus dieser Perspektive etwas zu dem sagen was Banker Voss sagt:

  1. “Hinter jedem System stehen Menschen”
    1. Es ist kein “anonymes” Finanzsystem – sondern es gibt konkrete Akteure mit Namen und Wohnort.
    2. kein Mensch ist perfekt – also wird kein System perfekt sein – es muss also eine ständige Weiterentwicklung stattfinden… aber WIE? (s.h. Punkt 2.)
  2. “Die Politiker machen nix” stimmt nicht. “Das sind ja schlaue Leute” “Die Komplexität und Vernetzung des Systems ist so Groß – dass wenn Sie (an einer Stelle) etwas gesetzgeberisch machen – wissen Sie nicht wie es sich (an einer anderen Stelle) auswirkt” Ein so genanntes: “Tail-Risk”
    1. d.h. das System ist sehr komplex / evtl. zu komplex (Lehmann waren 7000 Gesellschaften in 40 Ländern) – Vereinfachung wäre DRINGEND nötig (wenn man etwas vereinfachen kann – vereinfachen – es lohnt sich langfristig) um die Wahrscheinlichkeit der Beherrschbarkeit des ganzen Systems zu verbessern.
    2. In der Software-Entwicklung ist das Problem ähnlich:
      1. Apl. Prof. Dr. Niko Peach: “Geld ist wie Software”
      2. mit jedem neuen “Use-Case” wird das Programm/das System komplexer und man hat das gleiche Problem: Kleine Änderung an einer Stelle wirkt sich evtl. fatal auf andere Teile des Programmes aus. (manche Use-Cases/Funktionen des Programms funktionieren nicht mehr(richtig))
      3. Mittel der Wahl: Test-Dokumentation, Test-Fälle definieren, bei jeder Änderung alle Tests (möglichst automatisiert) nochmal machen. In der Software Entwicklung nennt man das: Test-Driven Development.
      4. Darüber hinaus KANN ES EINFACH NICHT SEIN, dass jemand der gesellschaftlich gesehen SINNVOLLE Arbeit verrichtet (Arzt, Kranek/Altenpfleger, Tischler, Ingenieur (so lange er nachhaltige Technologien entwickelt) SCHLECHTER bezahlt/belohnt/entlohnt wird als jemand der in einer “Zockerbude” wie der Deutschen Bank sitzt und den ganzen Tag Kurse an starrt und Knöpfchen drückt.
  3. Banken sind nicht kleiner geworden. Der nächste Crash wird noch schlimmer – dagegen sieht ein Stromausfall wie ein Kindergarten aus – Bürgerkriegsähnliche Zustände.
  4. “Ihr lasst alle Leute hängen – aber wenn es um die Banken geht – dann ist plötzlich Geld da”
    1. Gerechtigkeitsdenken der Bürger extrem verletzt – fördert den Rechtspopulismus (er ist nicht der einzige der das so sieht, angeblich laut IFO Institut nach jeder Finanzkrise profitieren vor allem die Rechts-Populisten)


Michael Krons in conversation with Rainer Voss.

Since I have developed Software projects, I can say from this perspective, something to what bankers Voss says:

  1. “Behind every System are people”
    1. It is more of a “cult” or a “sekt” or a “tribe” – they will let you test-work 3 days and nights straight to check if you are 100% obediant.
    2. It feels great to be part of the financial elite – you not only get rewarded with money – but you also have the feeling you are a clever guy and doing something “right”. If you fly first class to Los Angeles and sit next to famous people – you really start to believe you are the “chosen one”.
    3. It is not an “anonymous” financial system – there are concrete actors with names and places of address.
    4. nobody is perfect, so no man-made system is perfect, so there must be a continuous development… but HOW? (see point 2. 3. and 4.)
  2. “Politicians do nothing” – not true. “They are smart people” “The complexity and interconnected-ness of the system is so massive that if you change a little thing here by legislation – you don’t know how if turns out bad in other parts of the “financial programm”.
    1. ” Bankers call it: “Tail-Risk
  3. this means that the financial system is possibly too complex (the bank Lehmann Brothers consisted of 7000 companies in 40 countries) – simplification would be urgently needed (if you can simplify – simplify! – it pays off in the long run) to improve controllability of the whole system. (this is EXACTLY what software developers SHOULD do and also not always do, because they “think” they are god and can handle infinite complex source code… WRONG! nobody is god – nobody is perfect.)
  4. In Software development, the Problem is similar:
    1. Apl. Prof. Dr. Niko Peach: “money is like Software”
    2. with each new “Use-Case” the program/system becomes more complex and you have the same Problem: small change at one point may have a fatal effect on other parts of the program. (some Use-Cases / functions of the program no longer work(correctly))
    3. Means of choice: Test documentation, define test cases, after every change you make – re-run all tests-cases (if possible automated).
    4. In Software development, this is called: Test-Driven Development.
  5. Banks have not become smaller. The next crash will be worse than 2008 and a power outage will look like Kindergarten compared to the failure of a major bank like the Bank of America – it could mean civil war-like unrest.
  6. People are angry: “Politicians keep telling people there is no money for schools and hospitals – but when it comes to rescue banks – suddenly money is there”.
    1. This is extreme unjust:  Add migration and people will vote for Hitler style right-wing populism.
    2. according to IFO institute after a financial crisis – people started to vote for extreme-left and extreme-right, but the major profiteers of financial crisis are the extreme-right parties.

thanks for your attention and scrolling 🙂