Lagarde joined Baker & McKenzie, a large Chicago-based international law firm, in 1981.
IMF’s lending program for distressed European countries was “a very massive plan, totally unexpected, totally counter-treaty, because it wasn’t scheduled in the treaty that we should do a bailout program, as we did.” She also said, “we had essentially a trillion dollars on the table to confront any market attack that would target any country, whether it’s Greece, Spain, Portugal, or anybody within the eurozone.” With respect to the French economy, she stated that besides short-term stimulus efforts: “we must, very decisively, cut our deficit and reduce our debt.”[45]
“In a rare volte-face, the International Monetary Fund this week admitted that it grossly underestimated the impact of the austerity regime it advised Europeans to adopt.
A paper authored by IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard found that every dollar that governments cut from their budgets actually reduced economic output by $1.50.
The IMF forecast originally that economic activity would be reduced by only $0.50 for every $1.00 fiscal spending cut.
Now this is not the IMF’s official position, mind you. But Blanchard, as chief economist, makes the IMF look shame-faced. Indirectly, at least.
Predictably, this has given considerable ammunition to critics of the bitter austerity prescription that has characterised European governments’ fiscal policies.
Economics is known as the dismal science.
But for the IMF’s critics, this egregious forecasting error — upon which so much policy advice was built — is more than a crime.
It’s a mistake.”
and Kennedy once said: “An Error becomes a mistake – if you refuse to correct it”
Will they correct it?
“The fact is that economics is much more of an art than a science.”
And money is much more a “religion” a system of “believe” than you can imagine.
“Econometricians can factor in x amount of data into a model to show outcome y.
Like actors, who are only as good as their scripts, economists are only as good as the data they input.
Go forth and multiply
How did the IMF get it so wrong? Multipliers. Specifically, the wrong ones.
Although the 18th-century physiocrat, Quesnay, formulated the basis of multipliers in economics, John Maynard Keynes is generally credited with the conceptual modernisation and application of the “multiplier effect”.
Briefly, every dollar that’s spent increases aggregate demand, as that same dollar is spent again and again and again.
It’s this fiscal multiplier that the IMF employed to measure the likely effect of budgetary spending cuts.
Fawlty forecasting
To understand multipliers, here’s a brain teaser for you. Imagine we’re in the 19th-century equivalent of Fawlty Towers.
His Lordship arrives at a hotel and requests a room.
“Certainly, m’lord,” replies the manager.
But the man wants to see the room first. He puts his coat in the cloakroom and goes upstairs to take a shufty.
While he’s gone, the manager steals £5 from his wallet.
He then runs down the street and pays off the, er, lady of the night, to whom he owes five quid.
Said lady then hoofs off to the butcher’s to pay off her £5 worth of sausages. The butcher, in turn, heads over to the baker, where his account is in arrears to the tune of a fiver. The baker pays his £5 to the milkman. And the milkman heads to the hotel to pay the manager the £5 he owes on the room he rented there the last time he met up with the shady lady.
Then the manager replaces the £5 he stole from the toff’s wallet.
His Lordship decides the room is not at all like Hampton Court Palace and leaves.
So, goods were produced.
Services were rendered.
Debts were paid.
There were economic outputs.
GDP — in theory — increased.
And all due to one lousy £5 note.
That’s a multiplier for you.
One more thing: in all instances, credit was extended.
You could consider the aristocrat the government.
Or a bank.
Except, unlike governments, banks don’t give away money; they rent it out.
Meanwhile, back at the IMF…
Blanchard calculated that the IMF utilised a multiplier of 0.5.
In reality, it should have been 1.5. In the IMF’s defence, Blanchard argues that the Fund underestimated the extraordinary financial circumstances of the European economies.
In other words, the IMF was too optimistic about the impact of austerity measures upon GDP, and did not expect the effect upon unemployment would be so severe.
The IMF has admitted that its pursuit of austerity was misguided.AAP
Sorry in short – the whole IMF staff should get fired! Christine Madeleine Odette Lagarde should go to jail!
She and her advisors ruined the Greek and Spain economy and were about to ruin that of Portugal and Italy and France, driving many people to the brink of economic existance.
While allowing right wing nationalism to grow like a mushroom – not enough wrong doing for you?
Greece now officially hates Germany.
Thanks a lot.
It is what always happens when people do not have a mind of their own and do not do their own research and rely on “advisors” from McKinsey or god knows from where. those “experts” are none.
Unfortunately: i predict – the incompetent financial advisory IMF/ECB’s biggest crime is yet to come.
this is how incompetent our leadership is – it relies on experts that pretend to be experts – for the money
“Over the years, different generations of economists have entertained the idea that beliefs, and beliefs alone, could be powerful enough to set the economy on a path to expansions and recessions solely determined by expectations of rosy times being eventually fulfilled, or otherwise.”
“Slowly circulating money has plunged the world into an unheard economic crisis and millions of people creating unspeakable distress – the demise of the world has (purely economic terms) taken its terrible beginning – it is time by clear recognition and determined action to save the downward-rolling economic machine so that humanity is not driven into fratricidal wars, confusion and dissolution.
People live by sharing their achievements.
The slow flow of money has largely prevented the exchange of power and millions of people who are ready to work have already lost their living space in the economic transmission – the exchange of power must therefore be lost again lifted shaft transmission – the exchange of power must therefore be lifted again and the living space for all those who are already out
To this aim the bill of the market town of Wörgl: IT RELIEVES THE DISTRESS, THERE is WORK AND BREAD!”
“Langsam umlaufendes Geld hat die Welt in eine unerhörte Wirtschaftskrise und Millionen schaffender Menschen in unsägliche Not gestürzt – der Untergang der Welt hat (rein wirtschaftlich gesehen) seinen furchtbaren Anfang genommen – Es ist Zeit durch klares Erkennen und entschlossenes Handeln die abwärts rollende Wirtschaftsmaschine zu retten, damit die Menschheit nicht in Bruderkriege, Wirrnisse und Auflösung getrieben werde.
Die Menschen leben vom Austausch ihrer Leistungen.
Der langsame Geldumlauf hat den Leistungsaustausch zum großen Teil unterbunden und Millionen arbeitsbereiter Menschen haben dadurch bereits ihren Lebensraum im Wirtschaftsgetriebe verloren – Der Leistungsaustausch muss daher wieder gehoben und der Lebensraum im Wirtschaftsgetriebe verloren – der Leistungsaustausch muss daher wieder gehoben und der Lebensraum für alle bereits Ausgestoßenen wieder zurückgewonnen werden.
Diesem Ziel dient der Arbeitsbestätigungsschein der Marktgemeinde Wörgl: ER LINDERT DIE NOT, GIBT ARBEIT UND BROT!”
1932: A small community in Austria decides to print their own money – backed by the official currency, they successfully battles unemployment, poverty and the economic crisis aftermath of the 1929 new york stock market crash that send ripples of economic shockwaves around the globe.
170 municipalities and cities in Austria had to follow the example of Wörgel, but it has been adjusted to official (central bank) instructions
170 Gemeinden und Städte in Österreich waren drauf und dran dem Beispiel von Wörgel zu folgen, es ist aber auf behördliche (Zentralbank) Anweisung eingestellt worden
Fischer advises Roosevelt to overcome the economic crisis in the style of Wörgel, Roosevelt decides against it, why? Everything just to cover the Seniorage / money-creation monopoly of the (not democratically legitimized) central bank?
Fischer rät Roosevelt die Wirtschaftskrise im Stile von Wörgel zu überwinden, Roosevelt entscheidet sich dagegen, warum? Alles nur um das Seniorage/Geldschöpfungs-Monopol der (nicht demokratisch legitimierten) Zentralbank zu decken?
Wörgl 1932: Bridge build and paid in local currency
Fritz Thyssen (* 9. November 1873 in Styrum; † 8. Februar 1951 in Martínez bei Buenos Aires)https://www.amazon.de/I-Paid-Hitler-Fritz-Thyssen/dp/B0007J04TQ Review: “This book shows the betrayal of our own citizens against us and for Hitler’s regime? Why? Money!” “Thyssen provides very valuable insight into, and detailed information concerning the period between the end of WWI (the Treaty of Versailles), and the end of the Weimar Republic, explaining the root cause of it’s failure. Since the German economy was the greatest issue on which Hitler and the Nazis built their politics to win over enough Germans to get elected to the chancellorship, Thyssen’s expertise in finance is especially welcomed in understanding the many financial problems Germany faced nationally and internationally. It also gives some insight into how politics work in Germany, which is very different from what we know and understand in the U.S.”
70 years later… it seems all “the wrong way around”
is USA under Trump now a defacto fascist country?
“The push came hours after Trump bashed Germany for “being captive to Russia” because it imports much of its natural gas from there. That tirade, over breakfast with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, was rare in its bitterness.”
“A favorite target of Trump’s ire has been Germany, which has not met its NATO spending commitments and has granted permits for a second natural gas pipeline to Russia. Germany and other European NATO partners argue, however, that they have boosted their contributions to the military alliance and plan to kick in more in coming years. Germany’s leadership has said the pipeline is a private business decision, and it has been reluctant to interfere.”
“The accusation of Russian influence may have been particularly biting for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who grew up in Communist-controlled East Germany.”
“I myself experienced a part of Germany that was controlled by the Soviet Union, and I am very happy today that we are united in freedom as the Federal Republic of Germany,” Merkel told reporters as she entered NATO headquarters. “We decide our own policies and make our own decisions.”
well… you can DEFINATELY say, Europe and in particular Germany has A LOT MORE US influence through various think tanks such as Bertelsman-Stiftung (located in Berlin) and people like ex-IMF Lagarde now ECB CEO!?
Lagarde joined Baker & McKenzie, a large Chicago-based international law firm, in 1981.
IMF’s lending program for distressed European countries was “a very massive plan, totally unexpected, totally counter-treaty, because it wasn’t scheduled in the treaty that we should do a bailout program, as we did.” She also said, “we had essentially a trillion dollars on the table to confront any market attack that would target any country, whether it’s Greece, Spain, Portugal, or anybody within the eurozone.” With respect to the French economy, she stated that besides short-term stimulus efforts: “we must, very decisively, cut our deficit and reduce our debt.”[45]
– Republic of Bulgaria
България/Bulgaria
(1.39% of population)
–
Member since 4 May 2017
Prime Minister 2009–2013; 2014–2017
–
Election 2009, 2014, 2017
Next by 2021
89 Min.
due to absolutely harassed media laws only available until: 11/07/2019
Tirol, 1932: The world economic crisis is at its peak, radical political movements. In a small Austrian community, the driver Michael Unterguggenberger accepts the mayor’s office against better knowledge. But how is he supposed to save Wörgl? The power of despair and the support of his wife Rosa form the basis for a daring Experiment: Unterguggenberger wants to print his own money – so-called work confirmation certificates. For this, he must not only convince the community of his city, but also, above all, lean against the powerful banking system.
Michael Unterguggenberger is a newly elected mayor of the municipality of Wörgl in Tyrol. There he stands in front of a question that is not easy to answer: “and, you know, how you save the world?”
We write the year 1932. In the midst of the global economic crisis, unemployment prevails in the small Tyrolean town; money to pay the wage is scarce. The result: famine and poverty in the population.
However, these circumstances appear Unterguggenberger absurd, because the work and the food there is actually enough – only you can make no one. So why not just print your own money? In the absence of other ideas, they at least consider a test-like attempt. Only money cannot be called the new means of payment, which would be a gross violation of the National Bank’s currency monopoly. Unterguggenberger gives up his secure position as a train driver and finances the first pressure of the new currency-the so-called work confirmation certificates.
It is now up to various parties to convince: firstly, the workers must accept the money printed by Wörgl as a reward for their work, and secondly, the shopkeepers must accept the bills as a means of payment. Against all scepticism and resistance even on the part of his own son and despite the ever – widening radical political groupings, Unterguggenberger succeeds gradually in winning people for his Plan-the community is building up again, the economy begins to flourish.
While even the mayor of the neighbouring towns want to follow the example of the Wörgler a very powerful enemy: the banking. Unterguggenberger’s endeavours are to be stopped, all those responsible go to prison. Does the community find a way out to continue the Experiment?
“The miracle of Wörgl” tells the story of a daring money experiment, initiated by the Tyrolean Mayor Michael Unterguggenberger, based on real events in the early 1930s. Director Urs Egger succeeded already in 2017, with the award-winning ARTE co-production “A child is looking for,” a successful reality-based Film. Egger is particularly active in the field of television films, his works have been awarded several times. “To the border “from 2007 and” the Fall of Bruckner ” from 2014 received the Adolf-Grimme-prize. For the latter, Egger also received the award in the category Best Director of the Deutsche Akademie für Fernsehen (German Academy for television) in 2015.
The main role of Mayor Unterguggenberger is embodied by Karl Markovics. International awareness of the actors, erlang due to its main role in the 2008 Oscar-winning Film “The counterfeiters”. In 2011 Markovics made his multi-award-winning debut as director and author with the feature film “Breathe”.
in German: Das Wunder von Wörgl – hätte es den zweiten Weltkrieg verhindern können? jetzt auch als Spielfilm:
20:15 Das Wunder von Wörgl Fernsehfilm Österreich 2018 Tipp
aufgrund absolut bescheurter Medien Gesetze nur Verfügbar bis: 11/07/2019
Tirol, 1932: Die Weltwirtschaftskrise ist auf ihrem Höhepunkt, radikale politische Bewegungen entstehen. In einer kleinen österreichischen Gemeinde akzeptiert der Lokführer Michael Unterguggenberger wider besseren Wissens das Bürgermeisteramt. Doch wie soll gerade er Wörgl retten? Die Kraft der Verzweiflung und die Unterstützung seiner Frau Rosa bilden den Nährboden für ein wagemutiges Experiment: Unterguggenberger will kurzerhand sein eigenes Geld drucken – sogenannte Arbeitsbestätigungsscheine. Dafür muss er nicht nur die Gemeinschaft seiner Stadt überzeugen, sondern sich vor allem auch gegen das mächtige Bankwesen auflehnen.
Der Lokführer Michael Unterguggenberger ist frisch gewählter Bürgermeister der Gemeinde Wörgl in Tirol. Da steht er gleich vor einer nicht einfach zu beantwortenden Frage: “Und, weißt du schon, wie du die Welt rettest?”
Wir schreiben das Jahr 1932. Inmitten der Weltwirtschaftskrise herrscht Arbeitslosigkeit in der Tiroler Kleinstadt; Geld, um den Lohn auszuzahlen, ist Mangelware. Die Folge: Hungersnot und Armut in der Bevölkerung.
Doch diese Umstände erscheinen Unterguggenberger absurd, denn Arbeit und Lebensmittel gibt es eigentlich genug – nur kann sie sich niemand leisten. Warum also nicht einfach eigenes Geld drucken? So abwegig der Vorschlag dem zerstrittenen Gemeinderat zunächst scheinen mag: In Ermangelung anderer Ideen erwägen sie zumindest einen testweisen Versuch. Nur als Geld darf das neue Zahlungsmittel nicht bezeichnet werden, das wäre ein grober Verstoß gegen das Währungsmonopol der Nationalbank. Unterguggenberger gibt seine sichere Stelle als Lokführer auf und finanziert von der Abfindung den ersten Druck der neuen Währung – die sogenannten Arbeitsbestätigungsscheine.
Nun gilt es verschiedene Parteien zu überzeugen: Erstens müssen die Arbeiter das von Wörgl gedruckte Geld als Lohn ihrer Arbeit akzeptieren und zweitens müssen die Ladenbesitzer die Scheine als Zahlungsmittel annehmen. Gegen alle Skepsis und Widerstände auch seitens des eigenen Sohns und trotz sich immer weiter ausdehnender radikaler politischer Gruppierungen gelingt es Unterguggenberger nach und nach, Menschen für seinen Plan zu gewinnen – die Gemeinde baut sich neu auf, die Wirtschaft beginnt zu florieren.
Während selbst Bürgermeister umliegender Städte dem Beispiel folgen wollen, haben sich die Wörgler einen sehr mächtigen Feind gemacht: das Bankwesen. Unterguggenbergers Unterfangen soll gestoppt werden, alle Verantwortlichen ins Gefängnis wandern. Findet die Gemeinde einen Ausweg, um das Experiment fortzusetzen?
“Das Wunder von Wörgl” erzählt – basierend auf wahren Begebenheiten Anfang der 1930er Jahre – die Geschichte eines gewagten Geld-Experiments, das der Tiroler Bürgermeister Michael Unterguggenberger ins Leben rief. Regisseur Urs Egger gelang es bereits 2017 mit der prämierten ARTE-Koproduktion “Ein Kind wird gesucht”, erfolgreich einen auf der Realität basierenden Film umzusetzen. Egger ist insbesondere im Fernsehfilmbereich tätig, seine Werke wurden mehrfach ausgezeichnet. “An die Grenze” aus dem Jahr 2007 und “Der Fall Bruckner” aus dem Jahr 2014 erhielten den Adolf-Grimme-Preis. Für Letzteren bekam Egger 2015 auch den Preis in der Kategorie Beste Regie der Deutschen Akademie für Fernsehen.
Die Hauptrolle des Bürgermeisters Unterguggenberger wird von Karl Markovics verkörpert. Internationale Bekanntheit erlang der Schauspieler durch seine Hauptrolle im 2008 Oscar-prämierten Film “Die Fälscher”. 2011 gab Markovics mit dem Spielfilm “Atmen” sein vielfach preisgekröntes Debüt als Regisseur und Autor.
if things get out of balance – it’s always bad – buildings collapse, nations collapse, ecosystems collapse, the human body collapses if blood is accumulating to massively at one spot or maybe going into areas where there should be no blood at all (brain stroke) leading to death or paralysis.
everything depends on balance
Bernard Lietar once said, our monetary system is prone to failure because it is not an ecosystem of many systems and currencies – but rather for the sake of efficiency (as if efficiency would solve all problems) it becomes highly instable. (no bio diversity)
the whole picture
there are many micro cosmos on this planet – and if you not have never seen and lived at least a hand full of them (you need to at least spend one month in a country/in a micro cosmos to actually understand and “feel” what is it like to live like this) – then you only see a small glimpse of what this world is like – you do not have the full picture – just a section – if you want to understand the world (and hopefully change it to the better) – this section is not enough – otherwise you live in (worst case unsustainable) bubble.
why is sustainability important?
Because unsustainable means: it is going to end.
Even the life of your children.
Freedom/Liberty:
The rich lock themselves away – they are too afraid to share the streets with the poor (and in the worst case rush from one appointment to the next).
At the same time they dream about freedom.
What kind of freedom did they expect to find in this bubble?
consciousness is the compass
It is absolutely paradox and even worse: In the worst case their consciousness is not well trained, hence they are lost without a compass.
They do not even know what makes them truly happy.
There is a meditation (and any true guru will teach this for free) that is about breathing it is called: vipassana and it is exactly for this: to enhance your awareness.
In my humble opinion every human being shall do this for 10min a day one month straight.
Everyone can spare 10min a day. No excuses.
It is rather a question of: are you willing to.
nothing to trade:
the “problem” of the poor is that they have nothing to trade with “the market”.
It could be that they do not know what the market needs or even that the market currently does not need a lot of humans to operate. (machines/robots/software replace human labor)
Someone even said, maybe it is good to have some unemployment because this is free time people can use for something else… well… it’s not so funny if you have to spend this time under a bridge in the winter because you have nothing to trade with the market and the market does not want to give you a home for free.
no child is born and says: “i want to be stupid, poor and dependent on subsidies”
every child wants to develop it’s full potential.
nobody is born and says “i want to become a waiter”
everyone wants to develop one’s full potential and become a rockstar. (of course)
understanding:
In a world where people do not understand or care about the problems of others – is a reckless – ignorant – and (worst of all) unsustainable world – unsustainable means: it is going to end.
that will inevitably lead to violence, uprisings, revolutions and even war.
Fun fact: even the rich – do not want their factories, banks, cars, properties to be leveled.
So let’s come to a solution!
Any government that is not working towards a solution for all – shall step aside.
Do you expect the market will fix this by itself?
I don’t think so – the market is partly an autonomous program that only cares about it’s numbers (profit) at worst it’s a stupid unsustainable game without meaning played by “big boys” that only care about – if they can get their own private jet yacht golf course etc.
Only people that have seen and lived many micro cosmos can understand the problems of mankind and work together with others to fix it before it becomes a catastrophe for all.
The rich are so afraid to sit down at the table with the poor or even walk the streets and in poor shoes for one month.
the rich: I challenge you:
live one year poor. And you will see the world with a different view.
You will understand mankind better.
With rich i mean:
people that can not remember when they cleaned their own bathroom the last time (because they pay others to do it)
and/or managed to generate (legitimate or illegitimate) claims to charge a someone or some company or institution (state) a certain amount of money per month/year.
after all the monetary system is a law system, hence lawyers know how what they can claim and how to generate the claims out of the system.
legitimate grievances and race discrimination:
Actually all the whole race discrimination thing (that leads to hate and violence) – is about unsustainable concepts for survival.
If the Africans could survive sustainable in their country – they will never leave it – because they love their home country just as (usually anyone else) does.
But there is resource discrimination – the wealth from trade of oil of Nigeria is not well distributed – the soil in many countries is so expensive – even if the unemployed would like to “back to farming” they can not – because they can not afford the land – making them completely dependent on insecure jobs and unstable monetary systems.
usage of non-renewable resources plays an important role as well:
this planet has nice spots and places – fruitful hectares of land (good to grow food) and barren deserts (good for solar power)
but not everyone is entitled to use them, you will need land-rights, the right to build a house on the land – everyone needs a house so how can you not allow people to build one?
even worse: some of those resources will never come back (oil, gas) they are not renewable – which will create violence and conflict if nations demand on them for survival (to go to work, to generate income).
poverty is still the #1 factor for refugees to flee a country and they do in masses to knock down the doors of western nations where they get into conflict with the poor (mostly white) people already living there (i have witnessed this first hand)
a key factor is to enable people to live sustainable lives – not block the development – because of short term financial gains (the worst way to do business really… imho this should be investigated by the secret agencies and people should get seriously jailed for it, it’s a crime against all of mankind)
to replace finite resources (like fire wood) with renewable resources (like solar power) e.g. for cooking – how to proliferate the technology to the poor so they will stop chopping down all trees on this planet to cook their meals? (like they have done for centuries… but if they do not change, they risk of getting even poorer by worsening their micro climate (trees produce shade which let’s rain soaked soil stay wet longer, allowing more plants to grow) and degrading the soil by erosion leading to more refugees and human misery.
live long and prosper! Everybody!
… and please, walk in each other’s shoes for one month otherwise the poor will not understand the rich – and the rich will not understand the poor and things escalate very violently.
it does not have to be this way – again and again.
If all sides are dedicated to constructive behavior – we can sit down – talk – solve the problems peaceful instead of being stupid and jumping at each other’s throats.
Not even the rich will want that – because they also do not want their palaces to be leveled by war and burned down by violence or their friends murdered by a mob.
So i urge you: please homo sapiens be sapient (wise) and come up with better solutions – better for everybody – better for the planet – better for mankind.
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