Here are five areas for research which would cut to the heart of the problem of central banking and fiat money today:

  1. Risk, risk modelling and incentives – Inadequate risk modelling follows as a consequence of the moral hazard implicit in the system. VAR-based risk models have repeatedly been shown inadequate yet they legitimize under-provisioning for losses, thus increasing risk and inflating profits. Leverage ratio regulation suffers from the epistemological problem of the social sciences so it is likely to fail. The accounting provisions of IFRS in relation to mark-to-market and loan losses further promote risk-taking and instability. Basel capital adequacy rules failed in the past and will fail again. Authors: Kevin Dowd, Gordon Kerr, John Butler.
  2. Capital-based macroeconomics and the boom-bust cycle – CPI targeting is dangerously misplaced: consumer prices are the final signal at the end of a long production chain. Monetary fluctuations have material effects on the real structure of prices and capital. Prices become detached from underlying realities such as resource availability, technology and consumer preferences. Interest rate manipulation by authority disco-ordinates the economy in time by sending false signals about preferences for saving, borrowing, consumption and investment. Authors: Jesús Huerta de Soto, Detlev Schlichter, John Butler, Roger Garrison, Kevin Dowd, Mises, Hayek, Steve Horwitz.
  3. Money creation and the social process – Money is not neutral: changes in monetary policy have real distributive affects which may explain the UK’s severe economic imbalances across sectors and regions. Even in environments of low CPI, those distributive effects can undermine faith in the market process over the long term. Authors: Keynes, Mises, Hayek, Jörg Guido Hülsmann, Jesús Huerta de Soto.
  4. Economic expectations, big players and financial stability – Big players have market power, they are insensitive to the discipline of profit and loss and their actions are discretionary. Big players promote herding and instability. Central banks are the stereotypical big player. Free banking with commodity money was historically more stable than fiat money and central banking. Authors: Roger Koppl, George Selgin, Kevin Dowd, Alan Greenspan.
  5. Knowledge and method in the social sciences – The information necessary to support economic planning is not available. It is distributed in the minds of economic actors. It is subjective, practical, tacit, non-verbal and often time-variant. Much of it remains undiscovered at any moment and regulation hampers information discovery. Only the price system reveals the preferences of billions of individuals working in dynamic systems of social co-operation. The role of the entrepreneur is to discover how best to combine the means of production to meet consumer demand. Social processes are therefore not susceptible to contemporary methods. Authors: Jesús Huerta de Soto, Israel Kirzner, Mises, Hayek, Kevin Dowd.

The Bank might also investigate Gross Domestic Output (measuring all stages of production), definitions of money and alternative currencies.

We are ready to help.

src: 2015


MrVeryAngry: So, the Bank is the problem then. Not the solution.

Kevin Dowd: gave up on the OneBank agenda 14 words into their opening statement:

the key word is “integrated”.

No need to read on beyond that.

Like Steve, I was hoping for something a little more radical, eg, like openness toward a research revolution – not that my hopes were that high to begin with.

Goodness knows they need it or we wouldn’t be in this mess. More of the same isn’t going to help.
But, yes, we are ready to help … if they will let us.

Kumhof (Bank of England)


“Are you so scared on Tuesday when your ATM spits out all new bills?

Don’t Worry!

This was not a missed currency reform, but an Innovation!

The new 100s and 200s gradually replace the old Euro banknotes.

They are colourful as play money and are supposed to drive the money counterfeiters into despair…

This money is fiat money, because it has no value, but only at a price.

It’s more of a currency. And Nothing Lasts Forever….

The decisive factor today is in the age of Fiat-Money, the money from the air, the question is, who is allowed to pull it over the copy machine.

The matter is a little more complicated, because we have no paper money, that is paper money.

From a precise point of view, the notes are made of colourfully printed cotton, which does not make things any better, especially in the longer term.

For each note you have to work hard and stretch quite a bit and to have a gram of cotton as the equivalent in your Hand.

All money bills now live in something holy, something hypocritical.

People believe they can always go shopping with it.

Saving now looks a little different, after the ECB has eradicated the interest rate.

And it will probably stay this way until the next currency reform.

At some point, every paper money ends up in a disaster.

But you sit back and enjoy the spectacle in slow motion.

Because this disaster is not happening so fast.

First come the destroyers in the robe of rescuers.

Then they lose their clothes and are naked.

Then you have to dress warmly in an age in which pluralism is replaced by dogmas.

Do you know an eternal currency?

There’s one already, but I’m writing about it, then that’s it… well, you know.

The Euro reminds me more of the Lira and Drachma and less of the D-Mark.

And this much-praised d-Mark also consisted only of paper.

If you are more specific about it: the old 500€ note is not renewed and should eventually disappear.

My Baker will now look less grim in the morning when i try to buy a pretzel with it, while the bribe case Lobby carries deep sorrow.

With 500€ notes, they say, money is washed and terrorism is financed.

With their disappearance, the world will be better, because no one can buy more weapons and hashish and smear politicians. (well… maybe)

The illegal workers of modern times are paid with biscuits. Sure!

Do you also check the change for possible fakes?

Probably not.

Who can distinguish a flower from a supposedly genuine ticket?

Nevertheless, they have completely new security features.

Those who (by accident) hold fake notes by accident will not be able to change them.

According to the ECB, 563,000 false banknotes were withdrawn from circulation in Europe last year (2018).

-19% less than in 2017.

The estimated damage amounted to 31.4 million €.

The real damage caused by the ECB’s monetary policy is likely to be much higher.

Do you still remember the introduction of the Euro as cash 17 years ago?

The banknotes still have the same numbers, but today you can buy much less with it, while the ECB likes to describe its Inflation as monetary stability.

At the beginning, Europe had only EUR 227 billion in circulation, and now with EUR 1.26 trillion six times as much.

So a face-lift with new security features, is expensive advertising for a money without value.

But you can spend it or exchange it into something that does not lose its purchasing power so quickly.

A real security feature would be, however,if each oh so colorful secure glow would be ECU-guranteed exchange for something with value.” (something that does not become bad with time, silver maybe? (even if it is only very little silver))

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PS: Only a small amount (8%) of the “modern” US-Dollar money in circulation exists as “cash” (money only the central bank may create). So 92% only exists digital. Kind of scary huh?

The private banks (according to the rules) are only allowed to produce digital giral/fiat money – not cash.

And they did that plentiful. (way more than the real economic growth)

Thus – you can not withdraw all the money in a private bank in cash – there is not enough cash – it would first have to be printed and private banks really do not like to trade their digital fiat money into central bank fiat money – hence they work on a cashless (central bank less?) society.

Männerporträt (nach einem Gemälde von Lucas Cranach d. Ä., Königliche Museen der Schönen Künste in Brüssel), lange Zeit als der Magdeburger Domherr Johannes Scheyring betrachtet, möglicherweise jedoch eher der Mathematiker und Astronom Johannes Schöner.[57][58]


“Männerporträt (nach einem Gemälde von Lucas Cranach d. Ä., Königliche Museen der Schönen Künste in Brüssel), lange Zeit als der Magdeburger Domherr Johannes Scheyring betrachtet, möglicherweise jedoch eher der Mathematiker und Astronom Johannes Schöner.”[57][58]

8.3% to be exact

In monetary theory, money is usually grouped into four (or more) categories M0, M1, M2 and M3. The categorisation is done according to the liquidity of the respective form of money, from most liquid to least liquid.

M0, which is the closest observable set of money to what you are asking about, is the amount of cash in circulation, i.e. the amount of all money that exists in bills and coins.

M1, contains M0, i.e. all bills and coins in circulation, as well as all checking accounts, i.e. all money that is immediately available.

M2 contains M1 and additionally all savings accounts and time deposits under USD 100k. This set is significantly larger but also less liquid in the sense that a significant part of this money is not immediately available.

M3 now contains M2 and additionally larger time deposits and institutional accounts.

Note that this is the definition of the Fed; there are other definitions of these sets by the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the German Bundesbank among others.

The quantities of these sets are estimated by the respective central bank for the respective currency and a global estimate is hard to come by. However, with some extrapolation one obtains (roughly) the following numbers:

  • M0 = USD 4.3 trillion
  • M1 = USD 8.5 trillion
  • M2 = USD 41.5 trillion
  • M3 = USD 51.5 trillion

Thus, M0 (the bills and coins) would make up about 8.3% of the money in the world.




it is not about left or right – it is about truth, responsibility, good (with consciousness) decision making for the good of the species and the habitat.

truth can not be ignored forever.